The midterms are supposed to be the opposition party’s time to shine. This should be especially true when there is once-in-a-generation inflation and when the vast majority of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track. Instead, President Joe Biden and the Democrats are in position to have one of the four best midterm elections for the party that controls the White House in the last century. So what happened? The GOP’s “candidate problem.” Analysts, myself included, noted that the Republicans appeared to have a candidate likability problem. Pre-election polls showed Republicans in all key races had negative net favorability ratings. Democrats were generally better liked than their opponents. Many of those Republicans were endorsed by former President Donald Trump and had falsely claimed — at least at one point — that they believed he had won the 2020 election. Exit polls confirm Republicans’ “candidate problem.” In every Senate race (except Georgia) that Inside Elections rated as tipping or only leaning one party before the election, more voters said the Republican nominee’s views were too extreme than said the same about Democratic. We also see it in the district elections. Republicans have fielded 2020 gubernatorial contenders in many blue or swing states. None of them are predicted to win, and only Republican Kari Lake of Arizona has a chance to win. Two presidents on the trail Nationally, there are two presidents in the spotlight: the current one (Mayden) and the former one (Trump). Both men had negative net favorability ratings, according to exit polls. The fact that you have a current president and a former president who are both unpopular is not unusual. What is unusual is that of the 18% who viewed neither Biden nor Trump favorably in exit polls, 40% of them voted for the Democrats. The backlash against one president this year may have been canceled out by the backlash against the other. “Abortion first” voters. Arguably, what really made this midterm unique was abortion. Despite high inflation, only 31% of voters in the exit poll said it was the most important issue for their vote. Almost the same percentage (27%) said abortion, and these voters overwhelmingly chose Democratic candidates for Congress. This matches the momentum we saw in special House elections after Roe v. Wade was overturned in June. Democrats began to fare much better than before the Supreme Court decision. Read more here.
